The Markets Game
The Markets Game
Fed Dud
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-14:52

Fed Dud

Despite the market pricing in 2.5% odds of a rate cut, there was incessant chatter of hopes of a cut. The modern Fed doesn't push against the market that hard excepting highly unusual circumstances.

I took that happiness to hedge more. Not trying to play hero with shorts, just trying to protect gains.

GOOG was the other excitement of the day, on talk from an AAPL exec that they are looking to replace GOOG search with AI after a weak month. That doesn't strike me as anything that's likely to happen quickly.

Tariff news the presumed big mover but White House has been shifting to talking frameworks more than deals, and I don't think that's yet priced in.

Speaking of which, we had an onslaught of news late in the day, with Trump saying China tariffs aren't preemptively going away, arguments on if China or the US asked for negotiations, and a recission of Biden-era AI restrictions, which technically isn't tariff news but was probably considered as such.

Pretty much bouncing between 5560 and 5650, right now.


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