Ouch
PCE inflation was largely as expected, depending on what estimate you anchored on. PCE inflation was 0.3% m/m and Core PCE was 0.4%.
Personal income was strong, at 0.8% vs. est. 0.4%, while Personal Spending was weak, at 0.4% vs. est. 0.5%. Arguably stagflationary, but I don't think this drove Friday action.
UMich Consumer Sentiment got even weaker, at 57 vs. prev. 57.7, with inflation fears soaring. Some people sure are buying inflation fear due to tariffs, though I'd point out past history of tariffs is actually pretty mixed on the inflation front.
Trump said he would put secondary tariffs on Russian oil if a Ukraine deal can't be made.
Now it's said Trump wants to go big on April 2nd tariffs. I'd note we've now heard diametrically opposite claims over the last week or two, so do with that what you will.
Chinese Composite PMI was 51.4 vs. prev. 51.1.
Japanese Industrial Production was strong, at 2.5% vs. exp. 2.3%, but Retail Sales were weak, at 1.4% Y/Y vs. exp. 2%.
The BoJ cut purchases of long duration JGBs, hitting their market.
SPX lost $1T on Friday. Ouch.
5565 is the big number for today, as that's where the JPM Equity hedge level is. I'd say if we stay below that, it's trouble. I'd like to think we bounce, but we'll see. Also seems like there's a lot of buying interest at 5550 and 5500. So far, the pain continues, with SPX down about -1%.