Will They, or Won't They?
Jobless claims were 245K, as expected. Continuing claims were 1.945MM vs. prev. 1.956MM. Still a little elevated over the recent path, but no big deal at all w/w.
The Fed kept rates the same but lifted the 2025 inflation expectation to 3% and raised interest rate expectations, along with lowering the GDP estimate to 1.4%. Oddly, a bit less than half of Fed Presidents say no cut this year, while the rest say two. Also oddly, in my mind, the instant market reaction was to increase the odds of a September cut from 60% to 71%.
At the presser, Powell said he wanted to wait a few months before taking action, which hit stocks and bonds.
Trump said the EU and Japan aren't offering fair trade deals.
Japanese CPI was OK at 3.5% Y/Y vs. exp. 3.5% but Core was hot, at 3.3% vs. exp. 3.2% and prev. 3%.
The White House said Trump will decide whether or not they attack Iran in the next two weeks, based on negotiations.
Norges Bank (Norway) unexpectedly cut rates 25bps to 4.25%, while SNB (Swiss) cut rates by 25bps to 0%, as expected. All these rate cuts seem to be opening new liquidity, pushing up markets, though they're still red.
UK Retail Sales were -2.7% m/m vs. exp. -0.5%
Payment processors like Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) were hit as a stablecoin bill passed the Senate.
Leading Indicators, today.